While there is never a guarantee that any student will be admitted to any school, the class of 2021 is experiencing even less predictability. The situation begs insight beyond what we already know about yield protection, test-optional admissions, and college’s financial fears.
That’s why I was excited to share stories with 30+ colleagues on Friday afternoon.
Here’s what I discovered: Several consultants’ students applied to many more colleges because of test-optional admissions. (My line is that too many schools add too much stress.) Few of my students chose not to test, but those who did not reached for colleges that would have been sure denials had test scores been required. Two were successful, but only after switching to ED after colleges recommended that. Some colleges have asked us to call if we have deferred students who will commit.
The scoop on highly-selective colleges: However, others had students without scores who were admitted to highly-selective colleges like Tufts (Tufts admitted 50% test-optional ED applicants) on the basis of high rigor, GPA’s, strong recommendations, and essays. The consensus was that standardized testing is still a valuable part of an application at the most competitive colleges, but it disturbed us that scores of 1550+ on the SAT and 35+ on the ACT seemed to be better predictors of success. That represents only the top 1% of test-takers, and there’s no guarantee (there never is) that students who earn these scores will be admitted.
An honest conversation: Admissions offices at UT Austin, UVA, and UNC Chapel Hill confirmed that their out-of-state admissions rates are generally below 10%. Students and families need to understand that denials from these colleges have no reflection on the quality of their applications. My California colleagues, who work with many Texas applicants, underscored that. My twelve years as a consultant bears this out, even as more students choose to add these schools to their lists each year.
Good news for many: All of our students who applied to colleges below the top tiers, with or without scores, were accepted nearly everywhere they applied. More selective colleges that received large numbers of applications and deferred many students, including Northeastern, UMiami, and Tulane, were eager to admit students who switched from EA to ED II, and we all had stories about students admitted to the University of Michigan with lower profiles than those who had been deferred. One deferred student was admitted to Stanford, another to Georgetown. All this attests to yield protection. Remember that deferrals are not denials!
Next steps: We will be calling admissions offices for accurate data to help us build our juniors’ first lists, then reconvening in May when all the acceptances are in. We will also pool all our personal data anonymously.
Testing: I participated in a webinar with Compass Test Prep and have a call in to them regarding how to best advise 2022 and 2023 grads as they navigate another year or two of test-optional admissions. Yes, they should definitely test! College Board is planning on an electronic option for the SAT by 2022 and ACT will finally offer the section testing originally planned for fall 2021. Will keep you posted with updates.
Let’s think spring: It’s the usual time for college notifications! Congratulations to my students who have committed to colleges and will be heading off to CU Boulder, Hamilton College, University of Miami, University of Michigan, University of Richmond, Sacred Heart University (merit and athletic scholarships), University of Tennessee, Tulane University, UVA, and University of Wisconsin. Most are still waiting, but all have excellent options.
This weekend, I completed a Character Collaborative course and am eager to use what I learned as a new tool to help my students craft more focused essays and applications.
In 2016, the above colleges committed to a new organization called the Character Collaborative. Its mission was to go beyond simple numbers in college admissions and to emphasize applicants’ character traits, including ethically-based attributes such as empathy, honesty, humility, open-mindedness and unselfishness as well as performance-based character elements such as resilience, grit, teamwork and taking responsibility.
Since I began helping students write their personal statements in 2009, it has been my objective that students' stories would communicate these qualities, albeit subtly to avoid generic versions of the “activity laundry-list,” athletic injury, and community service epiphany essays. The Character Collaborative provides colleges with a framework to allow them create rubrics to assess the particular traits that matter to them most. Below, see how “teamwork” may be evaluated through essays and recommendations, extracurricular activities, and interviews:
Empathy, honesty, humility, open-mindedness are, of course, valued by all colleges. I add academic curiosity to that list. However, a college’s identity and priorities, including location, size, academics, and culture, may call for more fluidity of performance-based qualities. The degree, structure, and style of teamwork desired by MIT or CalTech for science and tech majors varies greatly from what many other colleges and majors might seek.
This excites me because I can start conversations with college admissions officers, whether their institutions belong to the Character Collaborative or not, about which character traits they value most in their communities and pass that information on to my students and families. Something new for the Class of 2022!
The surprising deferrals began two or three years ago. Why would the student with a weighted 3.7 GPA and a 25 ACT gain acceptance to a competitive college while one from the same high school with a GPA of 4.2 and ACT score of 32 be denied? This year, students with 4.5 GPAs and 1500 SAT scores are being deferred by many colleges. What’s driving this trend?
A long term issue: the declining birth rate:
Even before the pandemic rocked the economy, college enrollment managers worried about the declining number of high school students. (See statistics below.) A lower birth rate means fewer applicants over time. For years, colleges have invested in new science buildings, gyms, dorms, and other amenities to attract students--especially those who can afford to pay. However, the financial health of colleges, especially those heavily subsidized by state and federal funds, has been shaken by the impact of the pandemic. Colleges need to attract and admit students who absolutely want to enroll.
Shouldn’t admissions rates rise if there are fewer students?
In any year, many qualified students apply to the same highly selective institutions--it is impossible for these schools to admit them all. But the number of applications soared once most colleges waived the requirement of standardized test scores.
The role of test optional policies
While the policy is fair to students who had no opportunity to test because of cancellations, cost, or other hardships, it tempted others to apply to a greater number of colleges “just to see what happens.”
The application surplus is largely at selective institutions
It generally comes from strong students whose families have planned to pay for college, some even without financial aid assistance. Test-optional policies spurred a huge increase in ED applications. While many families had positive financial outcomes in 2020, applications to community colleges and state systems like SUNY and CalState have severely dropped because COVID-19 has hit lower income students and families the hardest, healthwise and financially.
Are deferrals about time?
Colleges--especially those with highly competitive admissions--are inundated with more applications, with and without test scores, than ever (covered in a December blog post). Many EA notifications were delayed from mid-December to January or February this year. Adding so many deferrals to the RD pool means that admissions offices will likely be swamped until April.
Maybe, but deferrals are really about yield protection
Colleges are holding off on admitting the strongest students who may be offered admissions elsewhere. That is nothing new, but those students had a better chance of being admitted in the past. If the institutional goal is predicting the highest possible yield, it’s a safer bet to admit students who meet the college’s academic standards, or are slightly below them, but do not exceed them. Even wealthy schools with large endowments want assurance that they will yield the students they admit.
It’s wonderful to witness happy students quickly committing to their dream colleges. But it’s also heartbreaking to see so many high-performing students deferred from a large percentage of colleges on their lists. I look forward to getting ecstatic texts, emails, and calls when the next round of notifications is released in the spring.
“American women, for example, are now projected to have about 1.71 children over their lifetimes – down 1% from 2018 and below the rate of 2.1 needed to exactly replace a generation. "The (total fertility) rate has generally been below replacement since 1971 and consistently below replacement since 2007," the report says.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr-8-508.pdf